第二松花江流域水电厂综合中长期水文预报的分析研究     

范垂仁谢武贤  关志成冷雪 范思毅 《水文》2004,24(2):31-34,54

基于对第二松花江流域上游小山、松山、两江水电站中长期水文预报研究成果，论述了综合中长期水文预报的研究思路和定性预报、定量预报的分析研究方法。该研究通过2002年实践检验，具有较高的预报精度。  相似文献   

月壤的物理和机械性质   总被引：46，自引：0，他引：46  

郑永春  欧阳自远  王世杰  邹永廖 《矿物岩石》2004,24(4):14-19

月壤是在O2、水、风和生命活动都不存在的情况下，由陨石和微陨石撞击、宇宙射线和太阳风轰击、月表温差导致岩石热胀冷缩破碎等因素的共同作用下形成的。月壤独特的形成过程，加上独特的月表环境，使月壤在粒度分布、颗粒形态、颗粒比重、孔隙比和孔隙率、电性和电磁性质、压缩性、抗剪性、承载力等方面均与地球土壤存在较大差异，这些参数的平均值和最佳估计值，可以作为月表机械设计和操作、宇航员装备设计、月球着陆场选址的主要依据，对月球资源开发和利用以及月球基地建设具有极其重要的意义。  相似文献   

某滑坡软弱夹层抗剪强度取值方法的研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王义军  李天斌  王宝国 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2004,15(4):25-29

文章主要针对软弱夹层抗剪强度取值所存在的争议，通过对贵州新街子滑坡的软弱夹层分别选择比例极限、屈服极限及峰值作为剪应力值，采用最小二乘法获得比例抗剪强度、屈服抗剪强度和峰值抗剪强度。以参数选取中应用较为成熟的反分析方法推求力学性质参数c、φ值作为判据对以上3种参数进行比较。计算结果表明：本滑坡软弱夹层中由于含泥量较大，而且粘塑性较强，屈服抗剪强度和反分析得到的抗剪强度偏差最小，比例抗剪强度偏差最大，峰值抗剪强度居中。并以此3种抗剪强度进行天然状态下滑坡稳定性验算，结果表明选用比例极限抗剪强度与当前滑坡的地质现象不符，选用峰值极限抗剪强度安全储备较低，而选取屈服极限抗剪强度最为合理。用此参数进行设计，滑坡已经得到了良好的治理。在取值研究中认为采用试验与反分析相结合的方法确定滑坡稳定性计算参数是比较合理的。以上结论为滑坡中软弱夹层抗剪强度取值的选择提供了重要的依据。  相似文献   

Occurrence of Halogen-rich Phlogopite in Late Cenozoic Volcanic Rocks in the Japanese Arcs     

Akira Imai 《Resource Geology》2004,54(2):153-166

Abstract. Halogen-rich phlogopite occurs in the groundmass of andesite and dacite lavas from Late Tertiary to Quaternary volcanoes associated with native sulfur and limonite deposits (Shiretoko-Iwozan, Hachimantai, Adatara, Omeshidake, Masaki) and hydrothermal ore deposits (Harukayama, Muineyama, Hishikari) in Japan. The F contents of the halogen-rich phlogopite range from 3.6 to 5.7 wt%, corresponding to atomic F/(F+C1+OH) ratios ranging from 0.45 to 0.69. On the other hand, the Cl contents of the halogen-rich phlogopite are around 0.2 wt%. The atomic Mg/(Mg+Fe) ratios range from 0.69 to 0.83.
The fluorine intercept value [IV(F)] defined by Munoz (1984) of the phlogopites ranges from 0.79 to 3.17, and the chlorine intercept value [IV(Cl)] ranges from -7.11 to -7.77. The observed IV(F) of the phlogopites broadly overlap the range of the IV(F) for biotites from porphyry copper deposits. On the other hand, the observed IV(Cl) are significantly lower than the IV(Cl) for biotites from porphyry copper deposits. Whereas the F contents of the phlogopite appear more prominent compared to the Cl contents, the calculation of halogen intercept values revealed that the phlogopites are enriched in Cl with respect to the element distribution effect of Mg-Fe substitution. Since the degree of Cl enrichment of the phlogopite is more significant compared to that of biotite in porphyry copper deposits, the phlogopites are considered to have formed under the condition of significantly high activity of halogens. Hydrothermal ore deposits may be formed in magmatic hydrothermal system associated with volcanoes where halogen-rich phlogopite is formed by hypersaline fluid.  相似文献   

地震动输入界面的选取对深软场地地震效应的影响   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

陈国兴  陈继华 《世界地震工程》2005,21(2):36-43

以天津和上海两个典型的深厚软弱场地为研究背景，探讨了地震动输入界面对场地地表地震动参数的影响。对于场地1(天津)和场地2(上海)，分别选择7个和8个剪切波速(υs)大小不同的土层位置作为地震动输入界面，并选用Taft、Northridge地震加速度记录和南京人工波作为输入地震动，将Taft波、Northridge波和南京人工波的加速度峰值水平调整为0．35m／s^2、0．70m／s^2和0．98m／s^2，用SHAKE91程序对这两个场地进行了不同的地震动输入界面、输入地震波和峰值加速度水平的128种组合的场地地震反应分析。与从假想基岩面(υs≥500m／s)输入地震动的结果(假想的实际值)相比，可得到如下结论：(1)随着地震动输入界面深度(剪切波速)的增加，场地地表加速度反应谱逐渐地向实际值接近；(2)地震动输入界面的深度相同时，地震动加速度峰值水平越高，两者的加速度反应谱谱值的相对差异也越大；(3)对于一般建筑物，可以把剪切波速为400m／s左右的土层作为地震动输入界面；对于中长周期的建筑物，则应慎重选择地震动输入界面，最好选取υs≥500m／s^2的土层或基岩面作为地震动输入界面。  相似文献   

小波分析方法在提取井水位潮汐因子震前变化特征的初步应用          下载免费PDF全文

杨从杰  冯志生  宋德伟  张秀霞  梅卫萍  张晓勇 《地震工程学报》2005,27(2):163-167

运用小波分析方法对1990年常熟、1995年苍山和1996年南黄海三个中强地震前江苏地区井水位固体潮的变化特征进行了研究，发现井水位M2波潮汐因子在地震前几个月几乎都出现一个幅度较大、周期为半月或一个月左右的异常信号，表明小波分析方法在处理和分析井水位潮汐资料方面可能是一种有效的方法。  相似文献   

The Relationship between Narratives,Wildlife Value Orientations,Attitudes, and Policy Preferences     

Eric Knackmuhs  James Farmer  Doug Knapp 《社会与自然资源》2019,32(3):303-321

Overabundance of white-tailed deer is a pervasive problem across the United States. Deer are blamed for increased risk of auto accidents, tick-borne diseases, and overbrowsing of native species. Lethal management techniques, cited as cost-effective and humane, are commonly employed for herd management. However, the approach frequently sparks outrage among various stakeholders who feel killing of animals is unjustified and prefer nonlethal measures. Wildlife managers then face the challenge of communicating with the public to build policy support for lethal management. The Narrative Policy Framework was used to test the effects of differing narratives on public opinion for lethal deer management. Results indicated narratives were influential in shifting attitudes toward and support for a proposed sharpshooting policy even in some cases where respondents were already familiar with the issue and held a previous opinion. This study also supported the utility of the Narrative Policy Framework for examining human dimensions of wildlife issues.  相似文献   

BDS卫星失效对区域定位精度的影响评估     

徐炜  徐梅  严超  王涛 《大地测量与地球动力学》2018,38(11):1133-1136

基于STK软件实现了2016-09 BDS系统星座结构的仿真，并选取可见卫星数、DOP值、系统可用性作为评估BDS卫星星座设计结构的指标，分析单颗与全部倾斜轨道卫星（IGSO）、地球静止轨道卫星（GEO）失效后对我国大陆地区BDS系统可用性的影响。结果表明，IGSO4卫星与GEO5卫星失效后对BDS在区域的定位性能影响较大，失效后的GDOP值分别为1.98、2.16。取BDS卫星正常运行时区域平均GDOP最大值(S=2.60)作为系统可用性阈值时，系统可用性分别降低了1.79%、32.63%；阈值取2S(5.20)、3S(7.80)、4S(10.40)、5S(13.00)时，系统可用性均可达100.00%。GEO整体失效后BDS系统在高精度定位中仍部分可用，而IGSO整体失效后BDS系统可用性受到大幅度限制。因此，增加在轨备份卫星时需重点考虑GEO5、IGSO4，并适当增加IGSO卫星的数目。  相似文献   

A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge          下载免费PDF全文

Yan Liu  Yonghong Hao  Yonghui Fan  Tongke Wang  Xueli Huo  Youcun Liu  Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5251-5258

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

北部湾典型海岛生态系统服务价值空间异质性对比研究     

田义超  黄远林  张强  陶进  张亚丽  黄鹄  梁铭忠  周国清 《海洋科学》2019,43(2):60-68

基于北部湾海域典型海岛高分1号数据,借助于CART决策树方法,获取了广西北部湾两个典型海岛的景观格局数据,并采用生态系统服务价值计量模型、空间自相关模型及地统计学中的变异函数模型对其生态系统服务价值进行了空间异质性分析。结果表明:团和岛单位面积生态系统服务价值是七星岛的1.08倍,但其变异系数低于七星岛;七星岛由于其地质背景为泥沙岛,景观格局受到人类活动以及自然环境的强烈干扰,趋向于复杂化和破碎化;而团和岛由于所处的外部环境以及自身的地质特征,景观格局呈现出整体斑块化分布状态;团和岛的景观格局主要受到结构性因素的控制,而七星岛则以随机性因素控制为主,选用变程和Moran’s指数来表征其复杂化和破碎化,来决定其优先开发时序,可对前者进行适当开发,而对后者适当进行生态保护;对受到结构性因素影响的岛屿在进行开发时,时序的识别选用变程和Moran’s指数来表征,若变程和Moran’s指数越小,说明海岛整体的景观分布格局趋向于复杂化和破碎化,反之生态系统较好,可进行优先开发。同时本文构建了北部湾海岛生态系统异质性评估与自然资源管理框架,并提出了海岛管理的建议与对策。  相似文献